Almost certain the relative majority of the Social Democrats. Among the many possible scenarios, also the return to power of the Communists, just over twenty years from the Velvet revolution.
Just over a month before the elections for the renewal of the Chamber of deputies , scheduled for the 28th and 29th May, all polls foresee the success of the (Cssd) Social Democratic party. There is however, great uncertainty over the government formula which could evolve after the elections. At the moment, everything seems possible, including the contrary: even a clamorous come back of the Communists, twenty years after the Velvet Revolution.
The possible scenarios are numerous. Analysts do not even exclude the idea that the elections will result in a draw, as happened in 2006 between the right and the left wing. And if such a situation were to take place, it would not be senseless to expect the continuance of the provisional government led by the statistician Jan Fischer, whose popularity is very high among the population.
On the horizon, as was said, also
a possible agreement, on the left, between the Social Democrats and the Kscm Communists, supported by “hard core” voters, in the last six months rated at between 13% and 15%. And, incredible would be a return to responsibilities of government – or at least a position from which to influence the most relevant choices of the country – on the part of this party which has remained loyal to its pre 1989 traditions. The Social Democratic leader and candidate prime minister, Jiri Paroubek, has until now excluded such a development, defining as “impossible” an alliance with the “old Communists”. It is difficult, though, to imagine that Paroubek will pull back if this turns out to be the only practicable road to becoming prime minister again. The hypothesis could be that of a Cssd single party government, with the external support of the Kscm. Besides that, in 2006, in extremis, Paroubek in order to avoid the birth of a government led by the (Ods) civic Democratic government, tried the surprise move of an alliance with the Communists and Christian Democrats (Kdu-Csl). The plan failed at the last moment, because part of the Kdu-Csl opposed it.
At the moment, according to the last survey carried out by the Cvvm, the orange Social Democrats are moving towards winning a relative majority in May, equal to about 30% of the votes. Definitely behind, 7.5% less, are the light-blue civic Democrats (Ods), the conservative winners of the 2006 elections
The Ods is relying on the slender hope of reducing, or exceptionally, annulling this disadvantage due to the “Petr Necas factor”, the new premier candidate – a politician with an immaculate curriculum, but with a rather weak charisma – called in April to substitute the controversial premier Mirek Topolanek. The latter, after numerous false moves, also last year during the EU Czech presidency, has definitively stumbled on equivocal statements regardings homosexuals, Jews and the Church. With Topolanek’s withdrawal from the political scene, the Social Democrats have, anyway, lost one of their main targets against which they had set their electoral campaign and, it is not improbable that this fact may tone down their enthusiasm.
Competing for third position, besides the Kscm, there seem to be two new parties: the Top 09 and the Veci Verejne (Public things).
The first is a conservative line-up which was born less than a year ago and led by Karel Schwarzenberg. Thanks to the popularity of the elderly aristocrat – ex Foreign minister – the Top09 has, in the last few months, managed to forge ahead. People seem to believe in Schwarzenberg who, in the past, was also Vaclav Havel’s chancellor and influential Foreign minister during the EU Czech semester Presidency. The Top09 leader is also a very rich man and this increases the amount of trust people have in him. “He is already rich of his own and does not need to go into politics to increase his patrimony” is one of the most recurrent comments on Schwarzenberg.
The Veci verejne (Res publica) party, in reality, has always existed since 2001, but it is only now that it has the chance to try the leap into national politics. Its representatives ask for greater assertion of direct democratic principles and a greater use of the referendum instrument. At the head of this – clearly right-wing line-up – there is the combative young-looking Radek John (journalist and television script writer), whose popularity among the public is proving to be Veci verejne’s trump card.
The other political forces which have a chance of surpassing the 5% limitation, are the Christian popular (Kdu-Csl) and the (Spo) Citizen’s Rights party. The latter, besides being a novelty on the Czech political scene, marks a return on the breach of the ex Social Democratic premier Milos Zeman who is aiming at the presidential elections. After the 2006 success, the Green party risks being left out.
In a situation such as this, the Social Democrats, in order to reach a majority, could decide to “knock on the door” of the so called “little parties”. Likewise, in search of wider alliances, could also be the Ods – Top09 Conservative tandem.
Finally, despite the heated tones and very strong disputes which were expected and that are shaking the electoral campaign, it is not to be excluded that an agreement may be made between the Cssd and the Ods, in order to guarantee a stable government to the Country. On the other hand, the technical government in charge at the moment, is the result of a compromise between the two major parties. In trying to foresee the future scenarios, there are also those who believe that the Ods and Cssd have already made the first steps to discover the possible points in common for a post-vote agreement. With the blessing of Vaclav Klaus, who seems to have been pushing in this direction for some time.
By Giovanni Usai