Encouraging messages delivered by the analysts of UniCredit during a seminar in Prague
In central-eastern Europe the economies of Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia now seem to be more ready than others for a new phase of economic development. A step behind are the countries of south east Europe (western and eastern Balkans including Bulgaria and Rumania), but also Hungary and the Baltic countries. As a matter of fact, some of those are risking, even this year, to remains affected by slump also due to the Greek recession effects. This is the scenario resulting from a seminar held in Prague, organised by the Italian-Czech Chamber of Commerce and Industry and UniCredit, the Italian bank colossus operating in the countries of the so called New Europe. To chair the meeting Pavel Sobisek, Chief Economist at UniCredit Bank Czech Republic, and
Matteo Ferrazzi, senior economist at UniCredit Research.
An important convention, since for the Italian productive system is fundamental to comprehend the state of health of this mosaic of countries which is called “Eastern Europe”. In this area there are presently 15-20,000 companies run by Italians, of which 4,000 with a turnover higher than 2,5 billion €. A presence which is four time higher than the Italian presence in China.
“Today – so says Ferrazzi – East Europe represents, including also Russia and Turkey (two of the five world’s major emerging markets), a market outlet which is as large as the Chinese or the German (whilst it was half of the German only a decade ago)”.
So even Europe seems to have its Bric (1) and it’s here that its future is probably to be found, as charts and figures point out.
Now that 2009 is over – a very difficult year indeed, during which East Europe has proved to be able to face the crisis attack –
future prospects seem to be definitely rosier.
“The signs of an upturn are evident. Central-eastern Europe (Cee) is literally conquering market shares compared to western Europe, although growth rates before the crisis seem now unrepeatable” – states Ferrazzi who also points out that in Cee countries the credit boom channel of the past years is now ended and that in future even the flow of direct investments will shrink.
Czech republic, in this field, is well positioned. In fact, UniCredit assessment highlights that this country can boasts a + 1,6% in 2010 and a 2,4% in 2011. Some sectors – mainly energetic production, manufacture of computers, technological products and automobiles – seem ready to take off again.
All in all, the world market is changing and the protagonists are no more those of 15 years ago. Within this context, the driving forces of Europe will be at East and Czech Republic has all the requisites to be one of those.